Crisis plans that can take hospitals months to develop could be produced in seconds with the right mathematical modeling — cutting out much of the painstaking human analysis — according to Boston professors who hope to incorporate these algorithms into local protocol.
"What these models enable you to do is figure out a complex situation with a lot of interacting factors. The tools help you make the best decision," said Ozlem Ergun, an associate professor in Northeastern's Mechanical and Industrial Engineering department. "Boston is a very specific place, where almost all the big hospitals are research hospitals, so it could really benefit from this kind of thing."
According to Ergun, these systems can determine the most efficient way for hospitals to respond to incidents such as outbreaks of disease, natural disasters or tragedies like the Boston Marathon bombings, which cause an influx of patients concentrated in one area.
"If you're in a situation where many people need access to hospitals, there could be several issues — problems with transportation, congestion due to the number of people, access limitations for security reasons," she said. "There needs to be a plan for things like how to use certain EMS vehicles and where patients should be directed based on their needs."
Ergun, who is reaching out to local hospitals to team up on preparedness efforts, came to Northeastern from the Georgia Institute of Technology in September, and has worked on issues surrounding humanitarian crisis response for organizations including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Jarrod Goentzel, founder and director of the MIT Humanitarian Response Lab, has been using these methods to help West Africa cope with the Ebola outbreak, and said the same approach could be used in Boston to create a central point among its cluster of large hospitals to house supplies needed in crisis situations.
"We have lots of hospitals here. In a panic mode, everyone is trying to procure supplies," he said. "Basic human nature is to hoard and hoard and be prepared. But the more centrally you stock things, the more risk that can cover."
Paul Biddinger, chief of emergency preparedness at Massachusetts General Hospital, said each local hospital conducts a yearly analysis using tools like FEMA flood maps, but that potential coordination among hospitals is not analyzed.
He added that predicting the frequency and severity of pandemics is tricky, and any resources that could shed light on those events "would be of use."
"Anything that will more accurately predict stressors on the system will help us know how to deal with those stressors," he said.
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